There are a few cells pushing into San Antonio currently. The first set of cells will be short lived. The second more robust system involves the cold frontal boundary starting to approach the region. This line is pulling pineapple express moisture with it out of the pacific. This will bring plenty of rain and some good lightning cells. These systems will bring localized flooding to the regular zones. The exact hit of these storms appears to be in the next 2-3 hours. With this, there will be a lot of consistent light to heavy rainfall. Let us see how the gulf moisture, pineapple express and cold front come together at the intersection of San Antonio.
As the cold front approaches from west Texas, the tropical influx from the gulf continues to populate cells. There are currently some cells just to our west and moving northwards across the landscape. These summer style cells will continue to populate between 3pm and 7pm. The peak should be around 5pm with most cells starting around 4pm. The extent to which these cells populate will continue to be monitored. Cells may populate throughout the day though as there is lots of moisture flow from the gulf. Once the frontal boundary makes it into San Antonio, gulf moisture mixing with the cold front can produce some strong squall lines. The conditions will be monitored and fall cold fronts tend to have less convective energy as solar thermal energy is becoming less day by day.
More tropical cells are populating and moving towards the San Antonio region. The cells that hit will produce strong wind gusts, potential hail and localized heavy rain fall as was seen yesterday. The approximate timing of these cells is 4:30pm-6:30 pm. As usual, depending on how strong these cells are when they hit the region will determine their overall impact to the region as the convection from the asphalt jungle will be counteractive to cell strength and development.
Yes, the humidity has been oppressive. Well the good news is that some cells are starting to populate to the south with most to the southeast and are moving north towards the San Antonio region. These cells if they hit will come in in the later afternoon with more showers possible late tonight. The odds are stacked against this as a result of the asphalt convection jungle.
We are starting to get more of a fall feel to the weather patterns. Our first cold front is currently east from Los Angeles through the Sierra Nevada’s. This one will probably approach later next week. We should start to get more chances of rain over the next 8 days with all the gulf moisture and the approach of this cold front.
***Jose has finally decided to start moving and is taking a more northerly route. The northwest side may just graze New York through Boston. The main threats are storm surge, and high surf. This is good news as it was thought it could hit anywhere between Northern Florida and New York back in the five day forecast a few days ago.
***Maria formed finally yesterday morning and has been tracking originally as a tropical wave since the African coast of origin. Maria presents a major problem as it is expected to take a similar route as Irma. Although Maria has not garnered near the strength of Irma yet, it is expected to reach category 3 major hurricane status by the time it reaches the Antigua. It will probably make category four status before it hits Puerto Rico and Haiti. This system will move slightly south of Irma’s original track and thus will lose more of its energy on Puerto Rico. The exact timing of it turning north appears towards the Bahamas but the current high pressure steering and dip in the jet stream may push this system into Florida again. A lot can change over the next couple of days.
*** Lee was originally thought to gain more strength but Maria in front of it has been sending it is super dry back side and it has been really struggling as a result. Even if Lee has a resurgence, it is currently moving in a direction that will not have any impact to land. Things can change but it looks like it will be a harmless system.
The predicted paths are indicated in the image below. The furthest point of the direction has the least amount of accuracy.
***Irma is still a high end dangerous caterogry 4 hurricane but could still gain strength before hitting the Florida coast. Irma has decided to take the west track of the Florida coast which is what I believed originally and I should have stuck with it from the start. Fort Myers, and Tampa bay will now be at the mercy of the eye wall which will get hit with the maximum sustained winds of the storm. On the other hand, the east coast is not in any better shape except maybe some of the winds. I know there has been lots of relief from the news that the main part of the storm will not be coming through Miami and West Palm. Here is the problem for Miami and West Palm that is more likely. The rain will be stronger along the east wall (this is where the moisture is first pulled into the storm), there will be a preponderance of more tornadoes, and the interaction with the low pressure system may indeed make this situation worse. Please be aware of what is happening outside and try to keep your ears open for what sound like freight trains and move to interior portions of the house/bath tubs if you do hear this.
***Jose is currently moving towards the windward island Antigua. It is currently a high end category four hurricane. It appears that Irma and the high of the Bermudas will be tearing Jose apart and lose strength. It also looks like the steering is going to get it trapped in the Sargasso Sea for a bit. Hopefully it does not a make a complete circle and decide to move back to the mainland… however if it does it will be a weak category 1 at that point. However, the interaction with the gulf stream could reinvigorate it as Irma moves into the upper midwest and loses some of the head trail winds of Irma.
*** Katia made an upper category two storm and is currently a tropical depression as it is dumping tons of rain over Eastern and Western Mexico. Hopefully the rains and water being dumped have not exacerbated the 8.1 Earthqauke driven damage and changes to the landscape. The situation could be tricky for Mexico from these two disasters.
*** Irma is increasingly getting closer to Florida, it is expected to hit the southern tip of Florida with high end category 4 winds. The exact positioning of the eyewall appears to be on course for the Eastern highly populated region of Florida with Miami through West Palm Beach. It then appears it will hug the coastline like Matthew did last year and move up into Georgia, South Carolina and then North Carolina. This system is not going to play nice especially when it reaches the current cold frontal trough in the middle to upper portion of Florida. Tropical moisture mixing with cold fronts produces strong tornadoes.
*** Jose will leave no rest for Antigua as it approaches. It is expected to be a category three when it goes through already hit hard Antigua. However, the Bermuda high is starting to push east so this should help steer Jose away from the US. It will however still get really close so South Carolina you are not completely out of the woods.
***Katia is starting to turn inwards into Mexico as a category 1 hurricane. It is expected to strengthen into a category two hurricane but could make major hurricane category three status. This will produce dangerous rainfall amounts, flooding and mudslides in Mexico.